IMD forecasts warmer-than-usual November across most of India, with below-normal rainfall likely in much of the country and a possible cyclone bringing heavy rain to Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu

NEW DELHI: Nov is likely to be slightly warmer than usual, recording ‘above normal’ maximum (day) and minimum (night) temperatures over most parts of the country, IMD said Saturday.The Met department also predicted that the country may get ‘below normal’ rainfall in most parts except for some areas in central, northwest and northeast India, where normal to ‘above normal’ rainfall is expected in Nov. ‘Below normal’ rainfall may be a concern for peninsular India as that part of the country usually gets good rain during Nov on account of the winter (northeast) monsoon.The prediction of normal to ‘above normal’ rainfall in some areas of central and northeast India assumes significance for Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas of Maharashtra and Gujarat, east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as it will help wheat crop in these rain-fed regions during the month.Meanwhile, the existing depression over southwest Bay of Bengal is likely to develop as a cyclonic storm on Sunday and cross south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts during the Monday evening-Tuesday morning period, bringing heavy rain to the coastal areas of both the states. Once the existing system develops into a cyclonic storm, it will be called ‘Murasu’. ‘Murasu’ is a Tamil word which means a drum, particularly a traditional percussion instrument.

“Monthly rainfall for Nov over the south Peninsular India, consisting of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikkal, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema region, Kerala, Mahe and south interior Karnataka, is most likely to be ‘below normal’ (less than 77% of the long period average),” said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra while releasing the monthly outlook for rainfall and temperature for Nov.The long period average of rainfall over south Peninsular India during Nov, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 118.7 mm. In Oct, rainfall over the country (51.7 mm) was the sixth lowest since 2001 and 25th lowest since 1901, with a deficit of 31%. Rainfall over south Peninsular India (122.2 mm) was the sixth lowest since 2001.